Market Pulse: July 1, 2024

US Presidents do not usually walk away from the job when the possibility of more time in office still exists. It has happened on occasion, but not often. The last time a President turned down the chance of continuing to work in the Oval Office was in 1968.

Vice President Lyndon Johnson became President when he ascended to the position after President John Kennedy (JFK) was assassinated on November 22, 1963. Johnson won the office outright one year later in the 1964 election. The decade of the sixties cannot be discussed without acknowledging the importance of Vietnam to that era. US involvement in Vietnam dates back to the mid-fifties. Initially, the US presence can be defined as political/advisory/instructive. By 1964 the situation in Vietnam was certainly more than a political inconvenience, the US lost 216 personnel during the year, but the country was not yet fully engaged in backing South Vietnam against the North in that country’s civil war and therefore Vietnam was not yet an all-consuming issue for the American people. However, as Johnson’s first full term in office got underway the war grew in intensity, US involvement expanded, and our losses increased exponentially. The first US ground troops arrived in Vietnam in early March 1965. By the end of that year US deaths in Vietnam were almost five times greater than they were a year earlier; almost 2,000 Americans died over there that year. In 1966 the number of deaths tripled, to over six thousand. And in 1967 the US death toll was 11,363, which is an average of 31 dead, day-after-day, every day of the year. The US had 16,000 personnel stationed in Vietnam when Johnson rose to the Presidency in 1963, by the end of 1967 there were almost 500,000; the number would rise still further the following year.

At the end of January1968 the bad situation in Vietnam got a lot worse. North Vietnam unleashed the Tet offensive and fighting in the country reached a crescendo. In early January the US Secretary of Defense, Robert McNamara said victory was in sight; but just a few weeks after he said that the light at the end of the tunnel was extinguished and the anti-war movement gained a lot more support. The war in Vietnam was the biggest issue in the country those years, but it wasn’t the only issue. The quest for Civil Rights for black Americans, led by people such as Martin Luther King and Malcolm X, was also a huge presence in the country at that time. In those years there were many large, peaceful protests, but there were also demonstrations that were punctuated by violent confrontations between the activists and the authorities and there were deadly riots in black neighborhoods such as New York’s Harlem, Watts in Los Angeles and Chicago’s west side. The animosity created by unfair and unequal opportunities was more than justified. That was certainly the conclusion of an advisory commission that President Johnson organized in July 1967 to investigate the root causes of the riots that had plagued many cities since 1964. The Commission’s Kerner Report, which was released in early March 1968, concluded that the nation was “moving toward two societies, one black, one white—separate but unequal.” Unless conditions were remedied the Commission warned the country would end up with “a system of apartheid” in the big cities.

So, by March 1968 the Vietnam war was a disaster and race relations were one spark away from becoming a conflagration. These major issues divided the country; “America Love it or Leave it” versus “Make Love Not War” and “We Shall Overcome” versus “Separate but Equal”. It was rough seas for President Johnson as he sailed toward the 1968 election. He was a Texas Democrat who championed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and a former advocate of the war in Vietnam, who in 1968 could see no way out beyond the negotiating table. Too many bridges had been burned during his time in office. The era was dynamic and destabilizing and it can be said that Johnson’s evolving views had, at turns, antagonized a wide range of the electorate and members of his own party as well. Regardless he was moving ahead with his plan to run for another term in the highest office in the land. But, sometimes the best laid plans…

Even though he was the Democratic incumbent President, members of his own party were more than willing to challenge his candidacy. First there was Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy, who ran against, and then narrowly lost, to Johnson in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire on March 12. Four days later Robert Kennedy, the New York Senator, the brother of JFK and a longtime Johnson nemesis, entered the race for the Democratic nomination.

Now it was Johnson’s turn to move; not many were prepared for what came next.

On Sunday, March 31, 1968 President Johnson addressed the nation in a televised speech. He spoke extensively about the situation in Vietnam, “…No other question so preoccupies our people…” He said the US would stop its bombardment of North Vietnam if that would lead to peace initiatives and meaningful peace talks. Johnson noted that “there is division in the American house now. There is a divisiveness among us all tonight,” and he worried that the achievements of the country could be squandered through suspicion and distrust that exist among the people of the country. And then after what can be considered to be a lengthy preamble, President Johnson delivered the key message, the gist of the speech, in just a few concluding sentences:

Believing this as I do, I have concluded that I should not permit the Presidency to become involved in the partisan divisions that are developing in this political year.

With America's sons in the fields far away, with America's future under challenge right here at home, with our hopes and the world's hopes for peace in the balance every day, I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office--the Presidency of your country.

Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.

But, let men everywhere know, however, that a strong, a confident, and a vigilant America stands ready tonight to seek an honorable peace--and stands ready tonight to defend an honored cause--whatever the price, whatever the burden, whatever the sacrifice that duty may require.

Thank you for listening.

Good night and God bless all of you.

Johnson walked away, or at least let it be known that when his term reached full time, he would be on his way back to Texas. There would be no further effort by him to retain the Office of the President of the United States.

Within a matter of days Martin Luther King would be assassinated. Two months after that Robert Kennedy would be gunned down. There were riots and protests throughout the year. 1968 was a s**t show, before and after Johnson’s March 31 speech.

So it went…back then.